Thread: Flush draw odds
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Old 12-15-2005, 01:33 PM
Songwind Songwind is offline
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Join Date: Jun 2004
Location: Burnsville, MN
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Default Re: Flush draw odds

On the river there are 46 unknown cards, 9 of which make a flush for you. Same 9 on the turn but 47 cards.

So, 19% of the time you make your flush on the turn, and 81% you don't. Of that 81%, 19% of the time you make your flush, for a total of 15.5%.

15.5% + 19.2% = 34.7%

In logic terms, it's an XOR instead of an OR. You frequently don't want to get your flush on the turn and then river another card of the same suit. If I have JT [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], I don't want that 4th diamond out there for anyone with Q, K or A to beat me. And the problem's even bigger for middle suited connectors.
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