Re: Falcons @ Bears: Opportunity Knocks
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It's true the Bears have played a cake schedule, 27th overall according to the Sagarin's. But Atlanta's played the 30th toughest schedule so please man, look at both sides evenly. I haven't accused you of this before but there's far too much homer in the pick this time around.
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Homer yes; affecting my choice, absolutely not. 30th, 27th...etc it doesn't matter. Matchups, injuries and confidence-factors, team morale are what matters. Assess those things correctly, you'll be right more often than not. All of those things favor the Falcons in my view. I didn't say that about GB, Tampa, Carolina or (wrongly) New Orleans. I say that now. I would not too surprised (although I'm not predicting) to see a BIG win (something like 27-7) by the Falcons. I would be surprised to see Chicago win by any number greater than 7. What this comes down to is value, and I see it here at +3 +117 or +3.5 -110.
As a side note, Atlanta is 4-0 in prime time games this year. 3 Monday nights and 1 Thanksgiving Thursday. There is value in that -- not by the stat itself -- but in the reasons for the stat.
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