Bob, good post - my thoughts:
Satellites are a good investment for
- people truly bankrolled for big events (2K+) but who play smaller events when that is all that is available. Basically, using lower-variance satellite events to get into their larger events mitigates the risk of having a bad run with $200-$500 tournaments while they are killing time waiting for the next big event. Even if 2K + events are technically available nearly every week, I'm sure travel logistics often make playing them all impossible.
- people who aren't bankrolled for big events (2K+) but want to take shots at them and are willing to absorb the risk. In some cases these people can be taking a good calculated risk, if their EV in a $2500 tournament is higher than any other available game.
- people who are in the process of moving from medium stakes to higher stakes. I'll use pokerroom for an example because it is what I know best. They have the weekly $320 Big Deal and $40 satellites. Someone with 10K right now but who expects to have 30-40K within a few months could be playing a lot of $50-$100 tournaments *and* the $40 satellites, intending to accumlate tickets to use later. Assuming the ticket value will eventually be within his bankroll, he could even be better off playing the satellites if his EV in them is high enough. (Edit
This can apply at any level. If you are playing $10 SNG's and $10 MTT's, and winning, you may expect to be playing $50-$100 multis soon enough, and find the $10 satellites to these events extremely soft.
- similar to the second group, people who want to take shots to move up through big MTT scores, perhaps because they feel their EV is greater in a tournament than in any othe form of poker (this is reasonable) and they are willing to take on the bankroll risk for the possible reward. This could be your $30000 player, buying into $215's and $215 satellites to $2000 events. Taken to an extreme this is bad bankroll management (no one with 30K whould be playing a 10K event, unless he's only doing it for the experience), but when done carefully can give a good player a reasonable shot of a huge score, while often at least getting his money back with small cashes while accumulating experience for later.
One thing to think about with respect to variance and taking shots is that playing over your bankroll isn't horrible if you do it occasionally. Plying 12 $2500 tournaments is terrible if you have 30K. playing a bunch of $200's and one $2500 is fine, especially if you get extrinsic value (learning experience, fun) from the $2500.