Re: Overpair vs mucho turn AG.
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The collective chances of two pair + set + bluff + TP are SO much more likely than any drawing hands or made/draw combos. There is absolutely no chance that he's playing a straight or flush draw often enough to tip the river from a call to a fold. None.
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I tried very hard but still have no idea what you are trying to say here.
Let me just say this:
If you think you have the best hand less than 30% after the turn c/r(which it seems you do), you should fold. You are only getting 7:2 on a call down.
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I'm trying to say that the river doesn't complete a draw anywhere near often enough to push the river to a fold if you were planning on calling a brick.
And no, the turn is not a 'raise or fold' situation.
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