Re: limit O8 - betting top two pair or a set on the turn (or not)
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However, if Hero does plan to call a bet on the river when he misses his draw, then
• 8/44, Hero scoops and wins 4 big bets fresh money
• 5/44, Hero splits and wins 1 big bet fresh money, and
• 31/44, Hero loses 2 big bets fresh money.
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When you call on the river you do not always lose. Sometimes you pick off a bluff. So the last number needs to be adjusted. Let's say you catch a bluffer about 20% of the time when you call on the river. (I assumed half these times you scoop.) The numbers would then look like :
• 8/44, Hero scoops and wins 4 big bets fresh money
• 5/44, Hero splits and wins 1 big bet fresh money, and
• 3/44, Hero scoops by catching a bluff and wins 4 big bets fresh money
• 3/44, Hero scoops by catching a bluff and wins 1 big bet fresh money
• 25/44, Hero loses 2 big bets
Under this scenario betting the turn is profitable.
Did I miss something?
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