I think your read is valid.. and it's coupled by the fact that he bet perfectly.. nearly half the pot both times..

This allows you to catch a possible straight with 7/8s (if he reads you for that possiblity) by simply calling, and also gives you the option of reraising if you think he's weak. He's betting into you on purpose, and with exreme strength in my opinion. I put him on a Boat, and I think you're less than 25% to win in this situation. Great fold in my opinion