Re: River aggression check-up
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The only reason I don't pop the turn here is because I thought I was actually behind on the turn and when the river T comes, the probability of Villain holding the case T just dropped by 50%. Then, maybe, I feel safe raising the river.
However, I don't think I'm behind on the turn.
Just waiting until the river to raise is called slowplaying. You only do that with monster hands, when the pot is small, and where your opponents are likely drawing to 2nd best hands. We don't qualify here.
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The fact that hero got c/red makes it enormously less liklely that villian has a T. A loose player is raising preflop, he has a real wide range here. When he c/res the flop, if he's not a total dolt, narrows his range to pairs, flush draws, and possibly some big aces. I would bet he will fold none of these on to a turn raise. Its possible he has AA,KK, or JJ, but he'll have XXs, 22-99 a lot higher % of the time. I would bet we are behind the turn less than 20% of the time.
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