Re: AQ
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I think that this might be a spot where as the pot becomes larger it becomes more correct to just call.
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That's an interesting statement. Going to noodle a bit here about why that might be the case.
We'd like to protect our hand, so let's look at that a bit. we have a pretty large pot and one cold-caller after us on the flop. Highly likely he's on a draw of some sort. A set of twos is possible, but not too likely. Even with a raise, we're still giving the right odds for an OESD to call, so we're not folding that out. Most other hands that cold-call that flop have between 2 and 5 outs against us. We can protect against those hands unless the pot is truly monstrous.
This pot is large enough that our play should be dictated by doing whatever we can to enhance the likelihood that we win the pot.
So our next question is why we're being donked into here. Is this a value bet from a now-better hand? If so, we'll get 3-bet here and be told so in pretty clear terms. Add in the fact that T9 would very likely would c/r here, not bet, and I think we can't go into call-down mode based on that just yet. So if not just for value, why is he donking? What does he expect us to do? We raised the flop, so he has to expect a turn raise to not be out of the question. I think he's wanting to use your raise to get this heads up.
Another reason to just call is to enhance our total value. If we call here and assume both opponents call on the turn (and we have the best hand), we make four bets (two bets each). If we raise and fold out the cold caller, it's not unreasonable to assume that the river will go check/call (check raise or another donk probably mean we're beat), so we're only making three bets. The question is whether the additional bet from the overcall is worth the risk of that 3rd player outdrawing us. I don't think it is. Our hand is too vulnerable for that kind of play.
I don't see it. I raise to protect my hand and fold to a 3-bet from either opponent. This pot is large enough I want to do whatever I can to enhance my chances of winning it.
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