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499,075,780 games 222.229 secs 2,245,772 games/sec
Board: Ad Ah Jc
Dead:
equity (%) win (%) tie (%)
Hand 1: 55.8090 % 47.73% 08.07% { AsTs }
Hand 2: 14.1190 % 11.40% 02.72% { 55+, A6s+, KJs+, A8o+, KJo+ }
Hand 3: 19.8196 % 15.92% 03.90% { 77+, A6s+, KJs, A9o+, KJo }
Hand 4: 10.2524 % 08.80% 01.46% { 22+, A6s+, KTs+, QTs+, JTs, T9s, 98s, 87s, 76s, A9o+, KJo+ }
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These ranges are remarkable.
It would be an incredibly donkish play (even more donkish than the normal donkey plays you see at these tournaments) for MP to push without an Ace or a pair of Jacks. Look at it from his point of view. If he doesn't have an Ace (or Jacks) in his hand, that means that there are 2 aces still out. People often slowplay hands like this if they have the Ace, so he cannot count out you, or the preflop raiser, or the button. If he is bluffing for all of his chips, it has to be one of the stupidest bluffs I've ever seen.
it's a mistake to assume that donkeys just play bad in a random sort of way. I don't see donkeys pushing for all of their chips in this situation. This guy thinks he has the best hand. So you have to hope that he would play A9 or A8 or A7 this way. Otherwise, you are sunk.
When donkeys have an Ace with a weak kicker, they tend to check or call the flop. They are not playing it this aggressive. They call to the river hoping that their hand will hold up.