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Old 12-14-2005, 12:54 PM
winky51 winky51 is offline
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Join Date: Dec 2003
Posts: 122
Default Re: Coin flip middle of a tourney, do you take it?

I feel this is the right play, reraising 2k. I prefer to reraise OOP and call in position usually.

If the player is not a 2+2er or on that skill level the 1st thing that goes through his mind is "He's got AK, I call because I'm ahead" or "He's got a small pair, I call because I'm 50/50"

They don't think about stack sizes, odds, the possibiliy they are out of the tournament. The annoyance of being reraised all in gives them an excuse to call with lessor hands and pairs. See it all the time.

Now if you reraise a good amount.. then it looks suspicious. First thing they think of is AA or KK or even QQ. Now when the board comes A K or Q they fold.

I try not to push all in at tournaments. I would rather reraise to make them think then bet the flop.

If you think about it lets say you push your AK 4 times and each thime they have AQ. Well to win 4 times in a row is 30%

Lets mix it up. dominated 1/2 of the time, coin flip 1/2 the time. 14% of the time you are going to win all 4.

I would rather win a smaller pot 4x 100% of the time then push 4x on 75% win rate.

Now if your field is mostly better players that understand pot odds, and hands then yes I can see it.

Most of my field (90%) are average to poor players. Very few with pot odds concepts or risk analysis.

With 90% bad players you will have few that bust and few that have monster stacks. The good players either go up or down slow in stacks. Their ratio is equal to the monster stacks of the loose bad players (because of the 10:1 ratio). Since most of the players are loose they will call your push more. 100 player tournament with 90 bad and 10 good your probably looking at 12 with stacks bigger than yours, 13 with stacks that are close to yours. 20 with stacks that can cripple you. Not sure if this makes sense or not. But as I play live tournaments I push less and less and seem to go farther and farther. I protect my stack.
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