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Old 12-14-2005, 07:12 AM
stokken stokken is offline
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Join Date: Mar 2005
Posts: 37
Default Re: wow this one is very hard i think...johnnybax hand from bellagio 15k

Now I havent and proberbly wont play these stakes until I have potency problems(which is a looong time ahead), but a few things I consider relevant here are.

The player seems timid-not the one to overplay his draws.
It is unclear how bax is percieved by his opponent.
We have not a read on his PF standards, but it is likely to draw a conclusion based on his postflopp play.

1. question Would a player like this call a pf raiser from ep with AJ? Unless bax comes of as anything I dont believe him to be I cant see why a timid player would want to either be dominated or fighting what he must think is a premium pair.

I would put him on PP
Considering his image I think if he had AA he might just pop it up pf . KK-22 is much more likely IMO. Although a few drawing hands shouldnt be left out I wheigh more towards pp

The next question is what he thinks he can move bax of with his raise postflopp?

I can see AA-QQ doing this. JJ if very scared of the flush draw, thinking bax could be on AK-AQs. But it is not consistent with the turn play. 55 could certainly do it to charge an assumed high PP in bax. This is more consistent with the turn play?

Given that the play seems to weird for a JJ hand I lean towards 55 or AA-KK, distant QQ with spade. Trusting the read on him not going nuts on a flopp with a draw I cant bring my self to fold this. Even though it is deep stack.
The weak reraise from bax could also encourage this action. Now if intentional it is great as one can induce overly aggressive play in opponent. But I go broke with this hand if beat, though I think it unlikely I call.

And on flopp I would just call. I believe I am ahead, a spade would scare him too. I would consider a semistrong bet on the turn, but lean towards rope a dope and let him do the betting, I think he is the one threading the fog of war.And if he has the flush QTs???? Might be consistent with this play? Damn I hate to second guess myself. Nah I think him to passive and go with first thought

But what do I know Stokken
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