[pfkaok]

[ QUOTE ]
AHHHHHH! Of course satelliting into events over you bankroll that you would never play otherwise increases your variance!

[/ QUOTE ]

YES!!! however, I think that this is one of the more common mistakes in BR management that TONS of winning players (myslef included) commit. I doubt many people on here could say that they've never played sats for events that they don't even have half the BR to buyin directly to. I know its considered "taking a shot" or whatever, but IMO its a very poor way to take your shot. say you've got a $25,000 BR. So playing $250 tourneys is within BR. a lot of people would assume that if they want to "take a shot" they should play a $250 buyin to a $2500 event. this is stupid. It would be much better to say, buyin to a few $500 tourneys, or maybe a $1000 tourney. It's WAAAAAY more effective.


And anyways, for the player with a $200k BR, yeah, playing the smaller sats might be a good idea if he's got good EV in them, but assuming he's not going to sell his seat, his variance WILL NOT decrease by playing $250 sats over $250 MTTs. He's not MAKING $2500 each time he wins. I'm not too up on expectations on these things, but i'll assume he's at least a pretty good winner and qualifies 1/6. So on average, he'll spend $1500 to get into the $2500 event. So you could say he ahs a pretty good EV in the sats, but the thing is, its still no different than him buying into the big tourney for a discounted $1500. Now, how is it that a $1500 MTT can have less variance than a $250 MTT.

Or, think about how often that $250 gets turned into a big score. we'll say top .5% is a big score. and lets say this player finishes in the top .5% double his share, since he's good. Well, entering into a $250 MTT, he'll obv get in there 1% of the time. and if he put that $250 to a sat, he's turn it into a big score, 1/6(1%), or .16% of the time. granted his scores will be much bigger when he turns his sat into a cash, but thats just the point. the variance is quite huge.