Re: Cold calling a turn raise with straight-flush draw on a paired board ?
If you're playing vs experts, from the turn forward:
They're both putting you on a flush draw. MP2 calls the BB just to keep him honest I guess, not sure what's going on there, but when the flush card hits, if BB has a 4 he'll check-call the river and MP2 will fold when you bet, because the chance of him being ahead of both of you is really rotten, and he's not closing the action.
It's therefore really neat that you happen to have a straight draw here too, or else the river would be really easy to play: if you hit your flush and BB bets, call, because he knows you have the flush.
If you hit your straight, though, it's more interesting; they think you missed your flush. I'm not sure what to do in the case of hitting a T (just fold, because you're not closing the action and you have to beat two players?), or in the case of hitting the K...
... this is where it sucks that I got to see the river action.
... If MP2 is a good player who can read you on a flush draw, when you call on a K hitting the board, he's going to be very suspicious. He'll probably fold anything other than KQ, thinking you hit top pair with KTs flush draw or something, again, he'll have to lay down his Q, because he's got to beat two players, which may not happen very often (although this may be overly conservative, since he only has to win something like 8% of the time). At the same time BB is betting into MP2, expecting you to fold. Therefore you can go ahead and raise BB, and he'll have to pay you off. If you're three-bet, I probably call it rather than cap it. I'm pretty weak on this part of theory though (when to cap vs when to call the threebet)...
Because people who three-bet the river can count on being called almost all the time, it would make sense that people would commonly three-bet without the nuts, and that therefore you dont' have to have the nuts to cap it, since you'll almost always get called by any hand that three-bet. I'm not sure of the validity of this theory, but if it's true, then I have to start capping the river more. [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]
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If you're playing against a bunch of 1/2 donks, then I guess just raise the river because mp2 has something that he wants to call with anyways and bb will pay? I guess go ahead and cap it too.
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