[krishanleong]

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I'd bet river because I'm not confident villain will bet a Q or 9 on the river. If he does there's a good chance he'll bet fold. Also I don't think there's many draws he will have to bluff.

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He did fold. But I thought he would call with a Q or weak ace.

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Did you consider check/folding the turn? I know it sounds really weak and I probably would bet as well. However, most guys 3bet JK preflop so we can rule that out I think. TK gets 3bet a lot too so that should be discounted. I think very few TAGs in that game can resist raising the flop with an OESD or flush draw. If they don't it is probably b/c they are raising the turn where you will be bet/folding I assume.

So basically you're hoping villain has a gutshot draw but these raise the flop sometimes. The Q9 flop means there are a lot of these though: 8T, TK (discounted), 8J. I think this guy has a Q or a better nine a LOT here.

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I think you are right. He will have a Q or 9 here a lot but I didn't think this guy was going to punish me with a raise. After all it's an ace high flop and the wussball mentality around here is to get to showdown at all costs. Plus just calling straight down isn't a horrible line/prevents bad folds etc...

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I would probably bet the turn as well and check/folding might be pretty exploitable, but how close do you think this is to a checkfold?

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It's close. I don't mind a turn check fold. I tend to screwplay quite a bit (and on my coaches request, I'm trying to increase) so this turn will go check raise at least as often as it will go check fold.

Krishan