Re: 10/20 AK preflop
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I just think that it's odd that you and Evan don't apparently see any value in a description of how a guy plays beyond the numbers.
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I just think it's unreasonable, not necesarily unvaluable. Let's say he'll cap with AK, AKs, AQs, AQo, AA, KK, QQ and JJ. I think this is too wide, but hopefully it will help make my point.
<font class="small">Code:</font><hr /><pre> equity (%) win (%) / tie (%)
Hand 1: 20.3124 % [ 00.15 00.06 ] { AKo }
Hand 2: 20.3116 % [ 00.19 00.01 ] { AA-88, AKs-ATs, KQs-KTs, QJs, AKo-ATo, KQo-KJo }
Hand 3: 29.6600 % [ 00.26 00.03 ] { AA-TT, AKs-AQs, AKo-AQo }
Hand 4: 29.7160 % [ 00.26 00.04 ] { AA-JJ, AKs-AQs, AKo-AQo }
</pre><hr />
Take out the weaker offsuit hands for the open raiser and the AQ hands from the capper and we have this:
<font class="small">Code:</font><hr /><pre> equity (%) win (%) / tie (%)
Hand 1: 17.3107 % [ 00.11 00.06 ] { AKo }
Hand 2: 20.6327 % [ 00.19 00.01 ] { AA-88, AKs-ATs, KQs-KTs, QJs, AKo-AJo, KQo }
Hand 3: 27.1062 % [ 00.25 00.03 ] { AA-TT, AKs-AQs, AKo-AQo }
Hand 4: 34.9504 % [ 00.31 00.04 ] { AA-JJ, AKs, AKo } </pre><hr />
Tighen up the 3 bettor's range to what a guy with a PFR of 6 would probably do on a day where he was feeling frisky and we have:
<font class="small">Code:</font><hr /><pre> equity (%) win (%) / tie (%)
Hand 1: 15.3903 % [ 00.09 00.06 ] { AKo }
Hand 2: 19.8966 % [ 00.19 00.01 ] { AA-88, AKs-ATs, KQs-KTs, QJs, AKo-AJo, KQo }
Hand 3: 31.3360 % [ 00.28 00.04 ] { AA-JJ, AKs-AQs, AKo }
Hand 4: 33.3772 % [ 00.29 00.04 ] { AA-JJ, AKs, AKo }
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Combine all that with the fact that it's going to be really hard to avoid getting owned postflop and I really can't think of any reason to call.
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