[Ulysses]

N,

I think this is an excellent post and analysis and pretty succinctly illustrates the insanely high variance that exists in tourney poker. Another way of looking at it is that here's this thing where you have an expectation of say $200-400 a shot, yet in one instance you might get lucky and win $100k+. The long run in tourneys is much longer than even many very experienced top tourney players would like to think.