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Old 12-12-2005, 05:49 PM
djoyce003 djoyce003 is offline
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Join Date: Sep 2004
Posts: 139
Default Re: AA gets reraised all in on a KQ6 board?

This is a prime example of the power of the semi-bluff

You are either slightly ahead, or WAY behind.
If he has KQ you are drawing thin.
If he has 66 you are drawing virtually dead.
If he's got a combo draw you are ahead but its basically a coinflip...if he's got an OESFD you are a slight dog.
If he's just got the naked flush draw you are a decent favorite.

The times you are behind up there you virtually never win. The times you are ahead you lose anywhere from 30% to 50% of the time. what you have to determine is how often does he have nothing but a flush draw and how much of the time does he have the combo draw or the set/2 pair. I probably fold here because of the coordinated nature of the board...it makes the combo draw or the 2 pair, set just too likely for me to feel good about sticking my money in with TP. This is kind of a bad beat post as well.
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