Re: Fright night
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My read was that it was an As or Ks.
I think your estimation that I'm good 85 percent of the time here is not the read I would go with.
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Let's see: 6 combos of AA, 6 KK, and 16 AK, so 28 hands, and 7 of them have the K[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img].
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OK, now you've made your preflop read. Next look at the flop and turn bets.
The man has a spade. (Not two, thankfully for me, since he only called the flop 3-bet.) There's really no doubt, so the only question is whether it is the A or the K.
You do make one point that I might use in some situations. People are perhaps a bit more likely to feel that confidence with an A rather than a K. So his LRR may be slightly more often an AA than a KK. His flop raise may be slightly more often the draw to the nut flush rather than the 2nd nut.
If I had thought about this at the time, which I did not, I think I still would have concluded that the slightly improved chances of his spade being the A and not the dreaded K were not enough to compensate for the possibility of losing the dead money overcall.
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