Re: [3/6] I suck at Rivers -- AA OOP vs. Possible Flush
bet/call the river.
A flush would suck (free-card play raise on the flop from villain), but I don't think that's extremely likely. Possible, but not likely. The flush hands that would be raising pre-flop would be primarilly AK-ATs, KQs and maybe KJs, but that's a very small percentage of his possible holdings. AK would probably cap pre-flop, but a lot of folks don't, so that's still a very possible hand. I just wouldn't worry much about a flush here until given reason to believe otherwise.
The call on the turn implies he has a pair smaller than kings and is calling down. Also possible is AK and he's waiting to let you bet into him again on the river with TT-QQ or overplayed UI overs.
I'll call a river raise and expect to be shown AKo a pretty significant amount of the time in that situation. This is the only time the flush really enters the equation, IMO. It's the only thing that stops me from 3-betting a river raise. He'll pay off a river bet with pretty much any reasonable pocket pair. A value bet here is pretty much mandatory.
|