[Shillx]

Well assume that we would always raise an overpair on the turn. After the raise he would be getting ~8:2 to calldown, so it makes sense that we have nothing 20% of the time and an overpair (or TPTK/set/2pair) 80% of the time. This way it makes no difference if he decides to calldown or not since the odds we are bluffing are the same as the effective odds he is getting.

Then on the river, he would be getting ~9:1 to call a raise. So what we do in hand one is something like this...

We raise any ace, ten, straight and the K [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] on the river. Raising a ten may or may not be correct, but let's just assume that it is. If we raise those 11 cards, it is 10:1 that we aren't bluffing and he is getting 9:1 to call. Not a fun place for him to be in.