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The problem with this analysis is that you're only giving yourself a 50% chance of winning the hand. There are lots of hands that would be played in this manner by the players you describe than just hands that beat you. Again, just like in n00b's post, this is either results-oriented thinking or MUBS...you're way over 85% to win this hand, IMO, and can therefore safely cap the river.

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Had a similar river situation a couple of days ago. Jaxup was sweating me. I just called the river which saved me the extra bet when I lost, but Jaxup pointed out that long term you will be winning an extra bet if you raise. Long term you are good here a larger % of the time then you are beat. Making the correct decision, even if on this particular hand you get beat, will still be +EV over the long term.