Re: Fright night
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My read was that it was an As or Ks. A limp reraise from a non-maniac is an awfully clear signal and unusual enough that I think you should often be able to make more precise reads in a situation like that without being guilty of MUBS.
I think your estimation that I'm good 85 percent of the time here is not the read I would go with.
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I agree that a limp-reraise usually indicates a good preflop hand, and in fact I'd say that 95% of the time it's AA. So, even by this read, it's more likely than not that he's holding a hand you beat, not 50/50. Include KK and AK in his preflop limp/reraise range and there are still way more hands that you beat than that you lose to that he'd still be playing the same.
Let's see: 6 combos of AA, 6 KK, and 16 AK, so 28 hands, and 7 of them have the K[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]. Is that right? Granted, it's more likely to be AKs than AK, but you don't think much of him so it could also be JJ or 99 if he thinks you're raising light to isolate him or something.
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