Re: Gold
If thinking includes judgement, yes.
Listen, avoid judgements.
Follow trend, avoid predictions.
Note that prediction requires judgements.
The typical limiting judgement is that price is "too high" when it may in fact just be getting started.
A good example is Newmont Mining. It's price for many observers is "too high" yet a strong high volume close over 50+ provides a low risk entry because:
0. The stock is already trending higher.
1. A close above 50 is great because most losing players who paid 48 or more (previously, in 01/04 and 11/04) have sold, leaving only players who likely hold for much higher prices. This reduces selling pressure and tends to increase price. All the miserable people are gone.
2. A close sufficiently below 50 (3% or more) invalidates these premises and indicates an immediate sale. The downside risk is the right size (2-6% max) to participate and find out if this trend really has legs.
3. After moving higher a retest of 50 is a normal occurence (not a threat per se) and is to be expected.
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