[bennies]

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The thing is, if he folded the flop it means he missed it and you had the best hand with A high.
If you pushed preflop, he would get an additional 2 cards for 600 chips - this is a good deal for Hero when so short stacked. Let's double up!

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I don't think this is a good deal, you are usually about 70-78% to win with 2 overcards vs your opponents 2 overcards on the flop.

For instance the flop was something like KT2 with 2 diamonds. I moved allin. If he has something Q8 with a diamond, he will win about 27% of the time. Obviously I want him to fold and give me the 1700 chip pot, than gamble for another 600 chips. If he doesnt have a diamond he still wins about 22% of the time, you can basically average it out as 25%, not to mention the small chance that he actually folds a pair or a weaker ace (which would have a lot of split outs). In any case of course the flop won't always have a flush draw, so even a number like 23-24% is a reasonable one to use...I still don't want to race against this hand for just a few extra chips.

I don't see any math whatsoever to support the claim you made bennies. Know these numbers in advance before trying to squeeze an extra 600 chips out of an already 1700 chip pot. It's especially bad to take this risk on the bubble! From a pure chip EV standpoint its even possible that pushing is correct, but from a sit and go standpoint where survival is important, there is no way that I want a call on this flop when he misses.

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Thanks for taking the time to elaborate (it must be pretty late where you live [img]/images/graemlins/tongue.gif[/img]).

I still think you are wrong - mostly because the pot is not 1700 chips but only 900! 600 more in it would mean a lot for hero.

Of course you are right about not taking chances on the bubble, but as I said in an earlier response this comes into play more if there are other short stacks. Here, Hero is way outchipped by everyone and he can't afford not to try and win these extra 600 chips (even if there is a 23% chance of villain sucking out).

Well, it's not totally clearcut, you made good points about pot splitting etc, but I think preflop pushing is the best.