Re: leakcheck hand
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1. There is a chance we have the best hand since the flop has some straight draws.
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Well the straight draw would be KJ/QJ/J8/J7. If you plug those in with a lot of possible top pair/middle pair/lower PP combos (all I can really think of), we have a decent deficit (it was around 10% or so I think, but who knows what this guy's range is). Anyway though if he bets his draws he probably bets most of his top/mid pair hands here, and even if he bets his top/mid pairs hands, it is no guaruntee that he'd bet all his draws, especially the weaker ones.
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2. We can win this hand by folding our opponent.
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Er, given an unknown at 2/4 I'd be surprised if he fold top/middle pair here. Maybe a lower PP. He isn't folding a draw before the river most likely. There is something there, but I'd like a bit of a read first.
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3. A free card would be nice.
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Indeed, and I bet we get one a lot here, so this is a really good reason. I often wonder how one looks at how often you need to get a free card compared to your equity to make it right. I realize the equation isn't that simple necessarily, but they have to have some relation.
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4. Our equity is pretty good anyway.
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Yeah, but this isn't a great reason. This just mitigates the times we're behind. It's like raising the turn with a flush draw or something, noting that if you get called, you have a lot of outs anyway. And you certainly do, but if the other guy isn't going to fold some % of the time (or will have a worse hand), it's still a -EV play. Same here. If we don't have the best hand x% of the time or set up a fold on a later street (that we want) x% of the time, saying we're not that far behind the bettor doesn't matter that much.
I don't hate it or anything, I'm just not sure it's the optimal play without reads. At 6-max I do this all the time though, I just wonder about 2/4.
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