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Old 12-11-2005, 09:33 PM
Dazarath Dazarath is offline
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Join Date: Nov 2004
Posts: 185
Default Re: 15/30 A flop decision with TPTK - AJo

[ QUOTE ]
I capped, call-call.

Turn is the A[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] and BB donkbets. I..? What's my plan if I see action from MP? What about possible river cards?

Surf

[/ QUOTE ]

I'm assuming "call-call" means BB, MP1, and MP2 all called?

I hate this situation. You're trapped being 2 possible LAGs + potential slowplayed trips.

A couple questions: over how many hands do you have those stats on the players? Even if it's not enough for AF to converge, is it enough for VPIP to converge? Any stats on MP1?

If MP2 folded, I think it's an easy call to see what MP1 does. If he raises, I'm folding some large percentage of the time. If I were in the situation, I'd probably pussy out and call the donk bet, but I'm not convinced it's the best play.

I guess I'm afraid of raising and then getting 3-bet by MP1, and now the pot is laying me some huge amount on my calldown, enough for me to convince myself that it's +EV to do so, just in case MP1 is pulling some huge donk move. This is only if MP2 and BB fold, though. I'd have a hard time imagining your hand was good if you raised, MP1 3-bet and either MP2 or BB still wanted to see the river.

Sorry, I got kind of lost in my own thoughts there. I'm thinking it's close between calling and seeing MP1's action or raising, with the only point of a raise being to charge flush draws. If you do raise and get 3-bet, the pot's laying you enough to draw to your 4-outer. The river sucks in this situation because it's always easy for me to convince myself to call 1 more bet, since the pot's like 5 kajillion BBs by now, and my hand "may be good 1 in x times".

I don't know what to say about the river. If it's an A, J, or maybe a 7, I'll put in some action on the river. If it's a [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], and MP1 didn't wake up on the turn, I'd be wary. If it's anything else, I think it could basically be considered a blank.

EDIT: Actually, I think maybe a call is good, because any A or J has few to no outs against your hand. The main reason for a raise would be to charge flush draws. Unless MP2 or BB is known to play draws very aggressively, it's not likely they have one. Also, calling saves you a bet if MP1 decides to wake up with a raise.
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