Re: Value bet this river?
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Evwerything you just said is why I usually check. But I can't help but feel that I'm missing a huge chunk of my BB/100 by making these checks based on 'no hand you beat can call' reasoning.
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Well it really depends on the board and your ability to fold if checkraised given the stack sizes. Here villains most likely holdings are 10x, a pair of 3s or 4s, or pp 55-88. The turn bet looks like it was meant to take down the pot. If he really had a 10 he'd probably lead the river since hero only called rather than raised. Value betting here is determined by how likely you think villain will call with a small pair vs how often you think he will c/r AI.
I'd value bet this much more often if my bet didn't commit me to calling a checkraise since you'll have so little left in a huge pot.
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