Re: A Mod Challenge: The Either/Or Idea
Gut instinct answer: You slightly under 50% equity.
a small amount of math:
Villian has either a Q or a diamond draw better than yours. Estimating I'd say 2/3rds of the time it's a Q, 1/3rd it's a diamond draw. There's a one in three chance the diamond draw will come in by the river.
2/3rd's of the time you'll win 1/3rd of the time: 22% win
1/3rd of the time you'll win 2/3rds of the time: 22% win
Add them: 44% equity, rough estimate. I don't think i'd be doing the exact math in my head, but thinking along these lines tells me good enough for a call down.
My line is this: call flop, check/call on non-diamond turn and river, bet/fold diamond turn and river, unless this guy is capable of bluffing here.
NOTE: I think one important aspect to villians play which wasn't given is cold-calling range. Even for 28% saw flop, cold-calling ranges can vary significantly. This is one of the more important stats to figure out, especially live.
|