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Old 12-11-2005, 02:53 PM
henrikrh henrikrh is offline
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Join Date: May 2005
Posts: 312
Default Re: My fellow workers bet on five card draw heads up, ten dollars a ha

Firstly I assume we are playing with no jokers, so straights can at best be open ended, not 16-way or anything.

The odds in this gmae are so easy even I can do em, adn I suck at odds. 4 to a flush you have 9 outs, 9/47 (aobut 19 percent). The pot is always giving you 1-1 since you either win or lose the same amount, and there are no implied odds.

Since flushes hit 19% of the time and str8 can at max be 8 out so will always hit less it will always be wrong to draw to any straight or any flush in this game.

Therefore, always draw 3 keeping your highest 2 cards, draw 3 if you have a pair. All the rest is pretty obvious if you start with 2 pair, a set or better.

Then again I could still be wrong, with a hand like TJQK2, drawing 1 to str8 might be good since you can make a decent high pair aswell.

I'll task a shot at the math here. With KQJT you have 8 outs from the str8 and 12 outs to mkae a pair, 20/47, which is 42.5%.

Drawing 3 cards with KQ, you have 6 outs 3 times to hit a K or Q, which is about 38% (probably messsed this one up a bit) And you have the chance to pair the other cards coming in, which I think should be above 5%, which is the amount you would need to make it a better play than the OESD play.

Either way, you could tear this game up pretty easy, but once peoepl know how to play it just becomes a game of chance, might as well hit the slots.
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