Re: The Dilemma
We can agree, right, that the decision is between raising and calling, right? Folding is out of hte question?
Additionally, I think if you raise, it has to be a big one. I think a pot sized raise is the the right play. The analysis is long.
My initial thoughts were:
I dont think we've paid enough attention to the fact that there's almost definintely another flush draw, or two, out there, and that you're drawing to the bottom end of the straight. There's a lot to this hand, since your opponents can have a massive range of hands. You could be up against two pair, set, straight, straight draw, flush draw, straight and flush draw, overpair, and any combination of the above. Given this, I think the things to consider when deciding whether to raise are:
-Is it a semi-bluff or a raise for value?
-If it's a semi-bluff, do you really expect three opponents to have hands they can fold after putting 12 dollars into the pot? Are your opponents likely to be capable of folding two pair? An overpair? A set (probably not)?
-If it's a raise for value, what sort of value are you really getting here? You're drawing to the low end of the straight and, imo, two of your diamond outs are probably in the hand of one of your opponents.
Those were my initial thoguhts. I talked for a while with a friend of mine abotu this hand and I think that after everything, a pot-sized raise (i. e. 70 or so) is probably correct, for value. This is based on the possible range of each player's hands, which is admittedly extremely wide. SB can have set, two pair, or straight as his most likely holdings (imo), and BB can have about the same, with flush and straight draws thrown in. I think for MP most likely reads are overs with flush draw, or a hand like TT or JJ, though again, set is also possible. That said, one of them is probably stupid and hanging around with a one-pair hand like A8, and MP could just be an idiot with overcards thinking hes getting 4:1.
Given the range of hands, I dont think you have a lot of fold equity at all. IMO, at least one of your opponents is usually going to have a hand that calls you, be it set, two pair, straight, or (from MP) OP. But, you're in good shape against eveyrthing but a high straight, and frequently enough a smaller flush draw is going to come along, and becuase of that, a substantial raise (that is, about pot, roughly 70-80), will accomplish the goal of getting your money in with an edge. Plus there's added value from the few times when you do manage to pick up the whole pot.
If you get one caller, I think you're playing passively until you make your hand. If SB or MP calls flop bet then shoves into you on turn, you probably have to fold, since theres' almost no way your A out is good and you'll only be getting like 5:2. If you're called and you make your hand, you're pretty likely to stack anyone who's made it that far.
Thoughts?
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