[Catt]

The only info we have is 8 pfr over only 400 hands. We have no idea (other than what the stats say) how he reacts to blind steal situations; what he might think of button; what he might think of us; what has been happening at the table; if he's down / up feeling lucky / feeling run over; what he's doing while playing; what mood he's in, etc., etc.

I make folds on the river here like these. I think most of the time they are good folds; I'm sure some of the time I'm wrong, but I think I'm making good decisions long-term on fold or call. I'm not saying that the stats are meaningless or we must always call here (because I do not think that is close to true). However, based on the info given in the OP and then in subsequent posts, I don't think this should be folded. When I do make a fold like this, I don't post it because, while I may believe it was the best play and mayh continue to so believe upon a post-session review, I'm either unable to convey that info adequately in a post for someone who was not there, or I am able to convey it and it either is "good fold" or "I wouldn't fold" -- i.e., nothgin good really comes from posting it. Victor may have had enough extraneous info to make this a good fold; but absent that info (which may require presence at the table to truly appreciate it) I don't think I could argue as an outside observer that this should be a fold by any noteworthy margin (and I think there are decent reasons to make a close call if, as I suspect, he's playing in a game where he will likely play against this specific opp with some frequency).