Re: how wrong am i here?
At 3/6 you are getting 19:5 if the BB comes along, and 16:5 if he doesn't. That means you are getting roughly 3.5:1. You would need to make up 4 * 2/3 SB postflop, or 1.33 BB. Considering you win this UI a significant portion of the time, I think you can call. Having the potentially retarded button helps a lot too (even though our read on him isn't solid yet).
I don't think you are giving up all that much folding, but I do think it is profitable to call. If UTG was a known tight raiser, I think this would be much closer.
Edit: Just realize UTG was also CO. Easy call now. Very easy.
Edit2: You are in the worst of situations in terms of blind structures, so if this game were 5/10, or had SB post half of BB, it would be an even easier call because of bigger implied odds.
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