Re: Preflop with 88
I was thinking JJ/TT vs KK type of situations for A83. You probably get a bet from one of them and then you act after calling 3 cold and they both know they're beat.
I was originally thinking KK because AQs, QQ-TT are all in a world of hurt here. You're right, QQ8 is probably a better example of what I was getting at for the second case because they are more apt to miss.
Your monotone point is well taken, but there's a fair chance that there is no redraw for either player. PP is looking at 50% and suited overcards is 25% a made hand (where you're now a 2-1 dog). Assuming 3 players see the flop...
against 2 PP (~33%) - no redraw 25%, 1 redraw 50%, 2 redraws 25%
against 1 PP and 1 suited overs (~66%) -
no redraw 37.5%, 1 redraw 37.5% and no flush, 25% made flush
[Edit: I discounted the possibility of 2 suited overs on this hand with the PF action so far]
Looks like a combined 40% that you *could* get action but you're behind about 40% of the time you get that action.
You're seeing offsuit overs almost never...
I'm, of course, ignoring set over set.
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I don't think there's an 'overwhelming' argument against it but I think it's -EV because you can't make those bets up as often as you might against weaker holdings. Calling 3 bets cold is a steep price on a long-term loser unless you have good control of the table.
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