Think of it this way:

We have at least 10% equity. We are putting in just one extra small bet than calling. Putting in 33% of the money with 10% equity. [33%-10%*1sb]
So we are investing only ~(.2) of a small bet extra, possibly .4 if capped. If he {or SB} caps 90% of the time, it costs us on average (.38) small bets more.

On the turn if we get a free card, we have 10% equity{assuming we didn't improve} and are granted that for free.
10% of a 14BB pot = 1.4BB = 2.8sb

Free card 10% of the time = 10%*2.8 = .28sb

So, if we get a free card only 10% of the time, 3betting the flop is only -.1SB.

Now. I gave your arguement a little leeway.

I assumed we only have 10% equity - we have more.
I assumed that someone drops out on the flop - if they don't we have an extra BB on the turn and we are only putting in 25% of the money rather than 33%.
And as I've said, I think we get a free card a little more than 10% of the time.


Let's stick with free card at 10%.
Let's have UTG stick around.
I did some pokerstoving and was surprised to see our hand actually has ~20% equity.

Investment = extra 2sb 90% of the time. 20% equity, putting in 25% of the money. ~(.1sb).
Payoff = Free card 10%*[20% equity of ~15BB] = .3BB = .6sb.

+.5sb.

Free card only 5% of the time is still +.2sb.
Free card only 2% of the time is still +.02sb.

This isn't even factoring in the 11% of the time, you'll make your hand on the turn + the ~30% of the time, cards that improve your hand [J,Q, [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]] fall.

I like the 3bet.