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Old 12-09-2005, 07:14 PM
Alchemist Alchemist is offline
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Join Date: Feb 2005
Location: Cincinnati
Posts: 84
Default Re: Stud8 - Day 5, Hand 9

[ QUOTE ]
I don't like it. I'd limp third, re-raise fourth, call sixth.

[/ QUOTE ]

I'd limp 3rd myself but since the OP completed, let's go from there.

He's shown strength with his Ace in the door. An important consideration is: do we think our opponents think we're raising a pair of Aces only and not a good low? Seat 3 doesn't seem to care. On 4th Street he caught a suited baby and raised Hero who completed third who's now showing A2. I can't see any benefit to reraising here as 1) we're not going to get him to fold and 2) there's a good chance we're behind in both directions.

6th street: OK, so OP said Villain could have anything in the hole. But what does Hero have? Ace high and no low. Villain caught a 3rd wheel card while hero bricked again. Just because Seat 3 might be a terrible player doesn't mean he doesn't have a hand. Hero needs something if goes to a showdown and if he does, I think he'll be lucky to win half.

I ran a couple 6th street sims:

Hero vs. Villain with 2 random hole cards:

====================
Calculation results from Poker Calculator 1.1.4.1
7 Card Stud hi/lo 8/b, 209440 combinations tested.

Dead cards: 3h, 5s, 6s, 8s, 9d, Jc, Qd

Hand | Ts5c4s2cxx | AsKcTh7h3s2h |
------+--------------+--------------+
High | 43989 | 29164 |
Draw | 621 | 621 |
Lose | 53759 | 82456 |
Scoop | 82456 | 53759 |
Low | 29164 | 43494 |
------+--------------+--------------+
Win% | 56.91% | 43.09% |
------+--------------+--------------+


Ts5c4s2cxx:
High Card win: 1431 draw: 54 lose: 53555
Pair win: 69878 draw: 18 lose: 29368
Two Pair win: 33344 draw: 0 lose: 0
Three of a Kind win: 5248 draw: 0 lose: 0
Straight win: 11936 draw: 0 lose: 0
Flush win: 3264 draw: 0 lose: 0
Full House win: 1248 draw: 0 lose: 0
Quads win: 32 draw: 0 lose: 0
Straight Flush win: 64 draw: 0 lose: 0


AsKcTh7h3s2h:
High Card win: 29839 draw: 54 lose: 89787
Pair win: 53084 draw: 18 lose: 36658
===========================

Hero gets scooped about 40% of the time against random hole cards and may already be drawing completely dead.

Make one of Villain's hole cards the A[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]:
Hero: .367
Villain: .633

Make one of Villain's hole cards the 3[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]:
Hero: .346
Villain: .654

I instamuck 6th, think to myself how much I hate stud, and move on to the next hand.
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