Re: Are Winrates Normally Distributed?
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from looking at the q-q plot, it seems that the upper tail of the poker data is fatter than the gaussian, and the lower is thinner. shouldn't this result in large downswings happening less often than a normal assumption would predict?
i need to spend some more time thinking about this, the repetition of trials inherent in poker makes this more complicated than a standard VaR calculation.
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These are based on 100 hand samples, so in order win a lot or lose a lot you probably need to play some big pots. Typically , you win more bets when you take down a big pot than you lose bets when you lose a big pot (I am talking about multiway pots here). So the big wins should be bigger than the big losses.
This has got me curious. I will run another one using a very large sample size and see what it looks like.
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