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Old 12-09-2005, 03:52 PM
Sephus Sephus is offline
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Join Date: Aug 2004
Location: Ann Arbor
Posts: 313
Default Re: Being hot vs being due

the correct answer (if it's possible that the coin is not fair) is switch to tails, because you have slightly more evidence that the coin is biased toward tails than toward heads.

if you somehow know that the coin is unbiased it obviously doesn't matter.

the only way to justify preferring to stick with heads rather than switch to tails is if you came into the day suspecting that your friend is more likely to bring a coin biased in your favor (heads) than his own (tails).
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