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Old 12-09-2005, 02:38 PM
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Default Re: Texas Holdem Hand

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Mason wrote a long time ago about not worrying about losing set over set because it just doesn't happen often enough to worry about. Which if true. But it will happen more often, obviously, if you're playing a lot of small pairs, especially if you cold call with them. (I know you didn't do that here.)

Anyway, tough spot you're in here. I see the logic of those who say raise the turn first time around to protect your hand, but when I think there's a good chance I'm behind, and maybe drawing virtually dead, I just don't see the sense of raising to "protect." I saw the analysis that said you were 11:9 to have BB beat, but that's a strictly mathematical analysis; since he's firing and re-firing the odds he has you beat, in my estimation, go way up. Not to mention it sure looks like the other guy has a straight.

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Im the one that came up with the 11:9 figure, and I just wanted to point out to you that this number is not "strictly mathematical", in fact this figure is based almost purely on logic. The only hands I have in the villain's range that constitute this number are the hands that I think the villain would logically play this way, AQ,AA,QQ,JJ,QJs. I think if you look at the action preflop+flop by this aggresive player you will see that there is a good chance he would play all these holdings the exact same way. So based on logic and mathematics, the hero is a small favorite to have the best hand which is why I think raising is the correct move on the turn since at this point in the hand the hero didnt know the guy behind him had a likely straight.
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