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Old 12-09-2005, 01:15 PM
Chris Daddy Cool Chris Daddy Cool is offline
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Join Date: Jan 2004
Location: USA
Posts: 401
Default Re: 200/400 bellagio vs liz lieu

i just read this thread so excuse me if i mentioned something anybody else already did.

couple things:

i really don't see why bk couldn't have a jack here. i see AJ/KJ type hands played this A LOT at all limits from 1/2 to 100/200.

i don't even know who liz is but saying her riase is for value seems like stretching it a bit. it looks to me that she was bluffing, but she just happened to have the best hand.

when bk bets this river what does she think he has? this can be broken down into 5 categories from weakest to strongest:

a) busted draw, not ace high

b) ace high

c) 44, 33, 22

d) TT, 99, 88, 77, 66

e) a jack

not all categories here are weighted euqally of course, but how would you think she would rank these in order of likelyhood?

if you weigh out the possibilities i think her best play is to just call against bk's range of hands. he is not calling a river raise with many of those hands and she knows he knows that she knows that the river bet looks like weakness and he'd be expected to get raised and probably pay off with anything with showdown value, so if she raises AND gets called she should be a pretty big underdog to win the pot with a pair of 5's. so i think with specifically A5 her hand is in her mind mostly a bluff with some thin value (if any at all).

btw, those saying she'd call a 3-bet with A5 are crazy, unless she thinks bk would really spew like that with a missed draw.

als btw, those saying she'd only call with TT, if i were in her shoes i'd be raising all hands from AA-99 maybe even 88.
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