[bigt439]

Alright, thoughts so far:

- When I'm ahead, I'm usually way less ahead than when my opponents are ahead of me. I have 4 outs against a flush, set, or better two pair. Something like AT has 3 outs to win, 3 outs to chop, and if he has a heart (good chance of the A [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] because 2 other are out), 9 outs to win.

- Saying you'd like to check-raise this flop is all fine and dandy given how this hand played out, but I feel like it misses a lot of value against a probable A. If the turn is not a [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] I push and get called lots. There's also a strong chance a better A would raise the flop. Check-raise does have its advanatges I just don't know if they outweigh those of extracting value with a bet. Maybe they do.

- Alright, this getting into the probability thing of people being on hearts is getting a little off track. This isn't really a probability question as much as it is a read based on their flop action. Now probability comes into it, but you can't just say what's the chance they're on hearts because I think it's significantly higher than any mathematical answer given the action. In all posts advocating I continue on with this hand I would like people to put the BB and MP2 on a hand or at least a range of hands. How many of those do I beat on the turn? Do we want to put each player on the case A's (possible, but anytime we're dealing with case cards its unlikely), do we think they're weak enough to call with a 9 here (I say people are junk all the time, but that would be a reaaaally junk play), did someone not raise a worse two pair (again, possible, but given the flush and people loving to get cash in I don't know). Now think about how much easier it is to put at least one of them on hearts. Limped in with some suited connectors OR a suited A (it's huge that the A is the A [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]) and cold called my flop bet (now consider that 5 other people saw this flop so it's even more likely these hands were limped and from my experience a flush draw is going nowhere to that flop bet, especially in MP2's spot). Checked through the turn to get cheeky (although I agree they would usually bet), but by the river it doesn't much matter. What do I beat at the river? Absolutely nothing but a stone cold bluff. If I'm chopping, I'm putting in 200 to win 415. I don't like those odds or how my chip stack will look if I lose.

Anyways, I just feel like it's easy to say, well they're probably not on hearts, your hand is sweet, pot is big, ship it. But if they're not on hearts, what are they on? This hand is obviously way different heads up, but it's two way, and they're both cold callers on a flop where made hands would want to protect. Good analysis so far, keep her coming. I'd love to see someone directly rebut my points.