Re: More outs than Spicymoose has excuses? Help me count!
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If a jack falls, how likely is it to win the pot for us (vs split) and how does this affect the number outs we can assign them?
[/ QUOTE ]Yeah, Miller discusses cutting outs when you are pretty sure there's going to be a split.
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Where can this be found?
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With 4 unseen jacks, i would assign no more than 2 outs to them, 3 at the utmost; since either a) one or two are already gone and b) if someone else has an A you're splitting this devalues them greatly.
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This makes sense to me. I'll revise my estimate from 4 outs to an optimistic 3. You would want 15:1 for that. Your're unlikely to collect three more bets from each of your opponents on the river if a J came, and if you did it would almost certainly be because someone else had the nut straight for a split.
Although it's a small chance, the possibility of someone making a flush detracts a little from Hero's hand also. I would say the chance of an Ace or Ten being good makes up for that factor, so I'll call that a wash.
Regardless, I now think this is a Fold.
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