DVOA
Rough guide to making a line from these: Home field is worth 15%. 1% is worth 0.21 points.
Sagarin
I [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] predictor.
Basically, I think that I'm not smart enough to evaluate lines through my own intuition. I don't watch enough entire games or have enough experience. So I just use computers, but they work very well.