[Guruman]

By the time I check the flop, all I really know about villain’s hand is that he wanted to raise it pf and not cap. He also chose not to lead the flop.

I estimated villain’s pf range at the time as A8s+, AT+, K9+, QT+, 66+ (that ended up being a little narrow)

raw numbers:
odds of being dealt two suited 3.3/1 (24%)
odds he’ll specifically have two diamonds 6% (actually less, as he’ll have folded or just called several suited combinations)
odds he’ll have AA – 220/1 (less than one half of one percent)
odds he will have completely missed the flop.

I consider AA to be particularly unlikely here because most people that are willing to open AA are also willing to cap it pf.

If he actually is on a flush draw, he’s drawing to seven outs and not 9. Also, a flush draw isn’t going anywhere for one bet on the flop, but if I leave the pot smaller he may find a fold on the turn getting 3/1. Since he’s drawing live less than 6% of the time here, I think a check is fairly safe. And keep in mind here that we’ve not seen any indication that he’s actually on a flush draw. A made flush will also auto bet the turn, and while I’m still likely to raise a flush card there – I think I’m disciplined enough to just call a reraise and re-eval on the river. If I had bet the flop, then villain could go for a checkraise on a made turn, and this would put me in a tough spot.

Also, many pfraiseworthy pocket pairs (66-99, TT, QQ) will autobet the turn once the flop checks through, where I can raise and they can call down. I profit more here than if I had bet the flop and they had just called and check/folded the turn or river.

If villain had unpaired cards that missed (which is the majority of his range btw), then he can easily find a fold on the flop. If he pairs up on the turn though, he may be tempted to call on the turn, which means that he has to call on the river.

Sure it’s a calculated risk. I don’t think its terrible yet. I’m still willing to be convinced though. [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]