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Old 12-08-2005, 07:31 PM
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Default HU Theory - outplay vs. force coinflip?

I've been thinking about the HU strategy discussed here, of pushing almost any two cards (when the blinds are > X% of your stack). W/o getting into all the details of whether or not the strategy really is optimal, here's what I've been wondering:

If I understand it correctly, and as stated by some posters on this board, there is really no couter-measure that can reduce this strategy to anything less than neutral eV. And that counter is obviously just to do the same thing. So heads-up we have achieved a Nash equilibrium-type optimal strategy that cannot be countered. Again, if I understand the assertion correctly, then let's just assume the conclusion is correct. I'm not bringing this up to debate the actual theory.

So here is the question. If you are playing against a passive, weak-tight player who you know you can chip away at with min or 3xBB raises, and won't fight back unless he has a premium hand, would you really want to employ this strategy? Why reduce yourself to 60% eV when you can get almost 90% by outplaying the person? I really can't see an argument for the "all-in" HU strategy against a mouse. Seems to me like this cannot possibly be the best strategy if you know you have a decent edge in HU skill.

So let's take it one step further. Phil Helmuth and Mike Matusow are HU for the WSOP title. Even though our all-in strategy is the absolute optimal (again assuming) strategy, if either one of these guys starts playing this way, he basically admits that he doesn't think he has a skill edge over the other. Of course if one of them does adopt this strategy, the other one absolutely has to adopt it as as well or lose (and they both know this being the poker geniuses are)--thus forcing it to a coinflip.

So I may not be getting the clunky words out of me so good-like, but do you see what I'm getting at? Basically either guy has the option of forcing it to a coinflip, or laying back and trying to outplay the other. Very interesting conundrum, sort of a two-way Spanish Prisoner kind of thing. Or not.

(Forgive me if this topic has already been discussed ad-infinitum. I searched but couldn't find anything, or figure out which keywords I should even be looking for. If it has can someone please point me to the thread?)

thx,
Matt
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