Re: Common HU flop situation
If you fold every hand that misses this flop (no pair or primary draw) it becomes too profitable to run the bluff checkraise. AQ is one of the very best missed hands so it is near the top of my lifeboat list of hands I want to keep in this situation. I'll save my fold quota for the many weaker hands I might have.
So I call the flop checkraise with AQ. I don't exactly have the odds to chase a made hand here but at 7-1 with overs and a good backdoor the potential EV loss is minimal.
On the turn he must either give up his bluff or double his investment by betting out-of-position. There are four cases:
1. I missed. Now I fold secure in the knowledge that I may have been bluffed but in the long run what he is doing isn't very profitable because it costs too much.
2. I picked up a draw. Now I call and quite likely call the river unimproved. This cheaply fulfills my game theory need to sometimes look him up with unimproved overcards.
3. I hit. Now I punish him.
4. I had AJ instead of AQ. I usually call hands like this instead of 3-betting. Now the semibluffer gets punished with a raise.
Overall what I hope to achieve is a consistent strategy that makes money off my good hands while discouraging (punishing) excessive bluffing in the cheapest possible ways.
|