[GtrHtr]

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Grunch on this one. I think you need to keep the pot as small as you can from the turn on. This isn't going to be easy with the current pot size. So I'd likely lead out for 50 on the turn (hugely small bet into that pot I know) and take it from there. You have to ask yourself, who calls the flop bet. The possibilities are a smaller set, 2 pair, an overpair or a flush draw. Clearly the two pair and flush draw are the most likely, a check PF eliminates the overpair IMO. I'd call a raise on the turn of 50-100 more to see the river but otherwise fold. If I don't improve on the river I check fold to an overbet.


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I think a lower set & 2 pair both raise my bet here (perhaps even TP). Thus I think the range of caller is more likely a FD, two overcards, or another mid pair. I think it's most likely though, two overcards or the FD. When I narrowed it down to this during the play of the hand, that's why I decided to check the turn, as the two most likely hands that called me, I'm either WA or WB. So I thought that checking the turn was the optimal way to keep the pot small. The one real uber negative to this play is if yet another diamond comes on the river.

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Why, in your range, do you narrow it down to 2 overcards (and the FD)? Do you think he'd call the flop bet with QJo or KJo or A8o thinking the flop missed both of you and he may have high card? I don't understand. I could see Q9s/o or K9s/o calling, but not 2 random overcards here.