Re: KC @ Dallas
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I'm not sure where you get your system from, but this looks to me exactly like they have it. Two dead even teams. The home team gives a field goal.
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The way I handicap my pointspreads is pretty simple, but it seems to do ok for lack of a better method.
(Points For) + (Points Against) / Sample Size
Do this for both teams, and find the difference between these two numbers. This gives me a basic line to further adjust.
This late in the season, I just use this seasons games.
Early on in the season I take the second half of the previous season and really look at the personnel changes.
So, on that Dallas game, KC has a base rating of +3.5, and Dallas is a +4. Then I modify this value for homefield advantage, injuries, and any key matchups. In this case, I gave Dallas 3 for homefield, hence the DAL -3.5. Perhaps a bit simplistic to you sharper cats, but I'm 14-11-1 against the spread. I've only seriously bet this season, so so-far-so-good.
Oh yeah...I look for good lines based on the guidelines in "Gambling For a Living", ie. 2 points off what I think they should be.
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