[Wynton]

After some sleep, I've decided that my post was, alas, results-oriented.

This hand was a repeat of what has happened to me several times in the last few days. Specifically, I flop top pair in bb, after no one showed aggression pf. It's headsup. Sb bets. I believe SB has something like middle pair, but possibly top pair, better kicker (very much like wa/wb). My read is that if I call the flop, he'll definitely bet the turn, but there is some doubt whether he'll call a raise on the flop. So the real issue for me usually is whether to raise the turn or wait until the river to raise.

But here - as in the other times - someone actually picks up a draw on a turn, and runner runners a better hand; thus, villain here ended up with a straight, after starting with middle pair.

Yet, I realize now that the chances of such a backdoor draw developing are relatively rare, or at least unlikely enough that it should not be my concern hu.

To recap, I feel fine about the flop call. The tricky decision for me in general is whether to raise the turn or wait until the river, which I guess is where we have to rely on reads.

Now here is how I analyze the decision whether to raise he turn in general, and <u>this is what I'd really like to discuss now</u> :

(1) If I raise the turn and my opponent folds, I might have lost 1 bb, because some people who will fold the turn raise may be willing to fire a river bet.
(2) On the other hand, some will pay off a turn raise and river bet, even with a worse hand.
(3) Alternatively, if my turn raise gets flat called, I can decide whether to check behind the river, if I suspect my opponent might have me beat but (a) too cautious to reraise the turn; or (b) planning a c/r on the river.
(4) If I just call call the turn, I might be able to entice villain into betting the river with a worse hand, giving me a chance to raise the river. Villain may fold, but if he does, he may well have folded to the turn raise too, making the delay a positive move. Or villain may call.
(5) Another possibility if I wait until the river for a raise, is that villain will check/fold the river. But again, if he does that, he was probably not going to call the turn raise without a decent draw.
(6) Yet another possibility if I wait until river to raise is that villain will c/c. Then the issue is whether such an opponent would have called the turn raise as well as the river.
(7) Finally, by waiting until the river for my planned raise, I can just c/c should a troublesome board appear, like in the hand I posted.

Did I leave out any considerations?