Re: Are Winrates Normally Distributed?
vkh, great posts, and thanks to Justing and Josh for bringing this topic up.
I think this...
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So where does that leave us with BB/100? How much error do we introduce in our confidence interval calculations by assuming BB/100 is Guassian? Good question. I'm not sure. I think you will still see remnants of the longer flat tail on the positive side and the shorter, steeper tail on the negative side (a by-product of the fact that you can win a lot more in one hand than you can lose). But I suspect it will be close enough to normal to not worry about it.
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is very worth studying. BB/100 and the associated confidence intervals are important to a lot of people. Finding out how off our confidence intervals have been, and exactly what we should use as x for bb/x with a sample size y, are very worthy pursuits. Even if you suspect its close enough to normal not to worry about, Josh's graph with (only?) 1500 datapoints suggests otherwise.
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