Re: Bellagio 3k
I don't know what other people in this thread are thinking, but a good tournament player isn't flat calling an UTG+1 raise, with like the whole table to act after them, with much besides a PP. I don't know exactly how Jim plays though, of course.
The only hands that seem even remotely possible that you could beat, are AKo and Ah Qh. And I think AK puts you to the test on the flop, and Ah Qh would just check behind on the turn, since it has a huge amount to improve on the river, and no real expectation of you folding.
He could be bluffing. But this is a big multiway raised pot, and you are the BB. Leading out from the BB is just such an indication of major strength that it doesn't make sense for an opportunist to call and expect to take away the pot on the turn.
So yeah, I think he flopped a set.
Now, how do you get away from the hand? You'll have 9k left, right? According to the action you're describing, you've only spent about 2600 on this hand. You'll have 45 BBs left if you fold. Assuming the blinds are not escalating super rapidly, I think you should make the Big Laydown. I'm not saying I'm good enough to do so in the heat of the action. But looking at it away from the table, that's the best play IMHO.
Finally: I think folding is not bad, but CALLING is still way, way better than an AI. Does anyone else agree?
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